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Identifying the impact of the business cycle on drug-related harms in European countries
dc.contributor.author | Casal, Bruno | |
dc.contributor.author | Iglesias, Emma M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Rivera, Berta | |
dc.contributor.author | Currais Nunes, Luis | |
dc.contributor.author | Costa Storti, Claudia | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-01-04T12:11:10Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-01-04T12:11:10Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Casal, B., Iglesias, E., Rivera, B., Currais, L., & Storti, C. C. (2023). Identifying the impact of the business cycle on drug-related harms in European countries. International Journal of Drug Policy, 122, 104240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104240 | es_ES |
dc.identifier.issn | 0955-3959 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2183/34743 | |
dc.description.abstract | [Abstract] Background: The evidence resulting from the analysis of the association between economic fluctuations and their impact on the substance use is mixed and inconclusive. Effects can be pro-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise when economic conditions improve), counter-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise in bad economic times) or unrelated to business cycle conditions as different transmission mechanisms could operate simultaneously. Methods: The main aim of this study is to assess, from a macroeconomic perspective, the impact of economic cycles on illegal drug-related harms in European countries over the 2000-2020 period. To this end, the regime dependent relationship between drug-related harm, proxied by unemployment, and the business cycle, proxied by overdose deaths will be identified. Applying a time dynamic linear analysis, within the framework of threshold panel data models, structural-breaks will also be tested. Results: The relationship between economic cycles (proxied by unemployment) and drug-related harms (proxied by overdose deaths) is negative, and therefore found to be pro-cyclical. One percentage point in the country unemployment rate is predicted to reduce the overdose death rate by a statistically significant percentage of 2.42. A counter-cyclical component was identified during the 2008 economic recession. The threshold model captures two effects: when unemployment rates are lower than the estimated thresholds, ranging from 3.92% to 4.12%, drug-related harms and unemployment have a pro-cyclical relationship. However, when unemployment rates are higher than this threshold, this relationship becomes counter-cyclical. Conclusions: The relationship between economic cycles and drug-related harms is pro-cyclical. However, in sit uations of economic downturns, a counter-cyclical effect is detected, as identified during the 2008 economic recession. | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | This paper is based on work supported by the funding of the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA). Contract number: CT.21.HEA.0110.1.0. Emma Iglesias has also obtained financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, project PID2022-137923NB-I00, and from Xunta de Galicia, project ED431C 2020/26. | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction; CT.21.HEA.0110.1.0 | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2020/26 | es_ES |
dc.language.iso | eng | es_ES |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es_ES |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica, Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2022-137923NB-I00/ES | es_ES |
dc.relation.uri | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104240 | es_ES |
dc.rights | Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional | es_ES |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ | * |
dc.subject | Drug-related harms | es_ES |
dc.subject | Macroeconomic conditions | es_ES |
dc.subject | Dynamic threshold panel data models | es_ES |
dc.subject | European countries | es_ES |
dc.title | Identifying the impact of the business cycle on drug-related harms in European countries | es_ES |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es_ES |
dc.rights.access | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es_ES |
UDC.journalTitle | International Journal of Drug Policy | es_ES |
UDC.volume | 122 | es_ES |
UDC.issue | 104240 | es_ES |
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