Modeling the Number of People Infected With SARS-COV-2 From Wastewater Viral Load in Northwest Spain
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http://hdl.handle.net/2183/30143
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Modeling the Number of People Infected With SARS-COV-2 From Wastewater Viral Load in Northwest SpainAutor(es)
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2022Cita bibliográfica
VALLEJO, Juan A., TRIGO-TASENDE, Noelia, RUMBO-FEAL, Soraya, CONDE-PÉREZ, Kelly, LÓPEZ-ORIONA, Ángel, BARBEITO, Inés, VAAMONDE, Manuel, TARRÍO-SAAVEDRA, Javier, REIF, Rubén, LADRA, Susana, RODIÑO-JANEIRO, Bruno K., NASSER-ALI, Mohammed, CID, Ángeles, VEIGA, María, ACEVEDO, Antón, LAMORA, Carlos, BOU, Germán, CAO, Ricardo and POZA, Margarita, 2022. Modeling the number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 from wastewater viral load in Northwest Spain. Science of The Total Environment. 10 March 2022. Vol. 811, p. 152334. DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152334.
Resumo
[Abstract] The quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in wastewater has emerged as a useful tool to monitor COVID–19 outbreaks in the community. This approach was implemented in the metropolitan area of A Coruña (NW Spain), where wastewater from a treatment plant was analyzed to track the epidemic dynamics in a population of 369,098 inhabitants. Viral load detected in the wastewater and the epidemiological data from A Coruña health system served as main sources for statistical models developing. Regression models described here allowed us to estimate the number of infected people (R2 = 0.9), including symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. These models have helped to understand the real magnitude of the epidemic in a population at any given time and have been used as an effective early warning tool for predicting outbreaks in A Coruña municipality. The methodology of the present work could be used to develop a similar wastewater-based epidemiological model to track the evolution of the COVID–19 epidemic anywhere in the world where centralized water-based sanitation systems exist.
Palabras chave
SARS-CoV-2
COVID–19
Wastewater-based epidemiology
Generalized Additive Models (GAM)
Kernel smoothing
LOESS
COVID–19
Wastewater-based epidemiology
Generalized Additive Models (GAM)
Kernel smoothing
LOESS
Descrición
Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade da Coruña/CISUG
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Dereitos
Atribución 4.0 Internacional