Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–May 2021)
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Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–May 2021)Autor(es)
Data
2023Cita bibliográfica
Barbeito I, Precioso D, Sierra MJ, Vegas-Azcárate S, Fernández Balbuena S, Vitoriano B, Goméz-Ullate D, Cao R, Monge S and the Study Group for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Spain (2023) Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020–May 2021). Front. Public Health 11:1061331. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1061331
Resumo
[Abstract]: Background: We estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021. Methods: A stringency index (0–1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicative model was fitted. The median of coefficients across provinces (95% bootstrap confidence intervals) quantified the effect of increasing one standard deviation in the stringency index over the logarithmic return of the weekly percentage variation of the 7-days SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, lagged 12 days. Results: Overall, increasing restrictions reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 22% (RR = 0.78; one-sided 95%CI: 0, 0.82) in 1 week, with highest effects for culture and leisure 14% (0.86; 0, 0.98), social distancing 13% (0.87; 0, 0.95), indoor restaurants 10% (0.90; 0, 0.95) and indoor sports 6% (0.94; 0, 0.98). In a reduced model with seven fields, culture and leisure no longer had a significant effect while ceremonies decreased transmission by 5% (0.95; 0, 0.96). Models R2 was around 70%. Conclusion: Increased restrictions decreased COVID-19 transmission. Limitations include remaining collinearity between fields, and somewhat artificial quantification of qualitative restrictions, so the exact attribution of the effect to specific areas must be done with caution. Copyright © 2023 Barbeito, Precioso, Sierra, Vegas-Azcárate, Fernández Balbuena, Vitoriano, Goméz-Ullate, Cao, Monge and the Study Group for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Spain.
Palabras chave
COVID-19
effectiveness
hierarchical models
logarithmic return
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)
pandemic
SARS-CoV-2
stringency index
effectiveness
hierarchical models
logarithmic return
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)
pandemic
SARS-CoV-2
stringency index
Versión do editor
Dereitos
Atribución 3.0 España
ISSN
2296-2565