Toward Reliable Population Estimates of Wolves by Combining Spatial Cap-ture-Recapture Models and Non-invasive DNA Monitoring
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Toward Reliable Population Estimates of Wolves by Combining Spatial Cap-ture-Recapture Models and Non-invasive DNA MonitoringAuthor(s)
Date
2018-02-01Citation
López-Bao, J.V., Godinho, R., Pacheco, C. et al. Toward reliable population estimates of wolves by combining spatial capture-recapture models and non-invasive DNA monitoring. Sci Rep 8, 2177 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20675-9
Abstract
[Abstract]: Decision-makers in wildlife policy require reliable population size estimates to justify interventions, to build acceptance and support in their decisions and, ultimately, to build trust in managing authorities. Traditional capture-recapture approaches present two main shortcomings, namely, the uncertainty in defining the effective sampling area, and the spatially-induced heterogeneity in encounter probabilities. These limitations are overcome using spatially explicit capture-recapture approaches (SCR). Using wolves as case study, and non-invasive DNA monitoring (faeces), we implemented a SCR with a Poisson observation model in a single survey to estimate wolf density and population size, and identify the locations of individual activity centres, in NW Iberia over 4,378 km2. During the breeding period, posterior mean wolf density was 2.55 wolves/100 km2 (95%BCI = 1.87–3.51), and the posterior mean population size was 111.6 ± 18.8 wolves (95%BCI = 81.8–153.6). From simulation studies, addressing different scenarios of non-independence and spatial aggregation of individuals, we only found a slight underestimation in population size estimates, supporting the reliability of SCR for social species. The strategy used here (DNA monitoring combined with SCR) may be a cost-effective way to generate reliable population estimates for large carnivores at regional scales, especially for endangered species or populations under game management.
Keywords
Conservation biology
Molecular ecology
Population Estimates
Wolves
Capture-Recapture Models
Non-invasive DNA Monitoring
Molecular ecology
Population Estimates
Wolves
Capture-Recapture Models
Non-invasive DNA Monitoring
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© The Author(s) 2018. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
ISSN
2045-2322