Palacios-Baena, Zaira R.Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, BelénCueto-López, MarinaViale, Pier-LuigyVenditti, MarioHernández-Torres, AliciaOliver, AntonioMartínez-Martínez, LuisCalbo, EstherPintado, VicenteGasch Blasi, OriolAlmirante, BenitoLepe, José AntonioPitout, JohannAkova, MuratPeña-Miralles, CarmenSchwaber, Mitchell J.Tumbarello, MariaTacconelli, EvelinaOrigüen, JuliaPrim, NuriaBou, GermánGiamarellou, HelenBermejo, JoaquínHamprecht, AxelPérez, Federico J.Almela, ManuelLowman, WarrenHsueh, Po-RenNavarro-San Francisco, CarolinaTorre-Cisneros, JuliánCarmeli, YehudaBonomo, RobertPaterson, David L.Pascual, ÁlvaroRodríguez-Baño, Jesús2026-04-222026-04-222016-12-20Palacios-Baena ZR, Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez B, De Cueto M, Viale P, Venditti M, Hernández-Torres A, Oliver A, Martínez-Martínez L, Calbo E, Pintado V, Gasch O, Almirante B, Antonio Lepe J, Pitout J, Akova M, Peña-Miralles C, Schwaber MJ, Tumbarello M, Tacconelli E, Origüen J, Prim N, Bou G, Giamarellou H, Bermejo J, Hamprecht A, Pérez F, Almela M, Lowman W, Hsueh PR, Navarro-San Francisco C, Torre-Cisneros J, Carmeli Y, Bonomo RA, Paterson DL, Pascual Á, Rodríguez-Baño J; REIPI/ESGBIS/INCREMENT Group. Development and validation of the INCREMENT-ESBL predictive score for mortality in patients with bloodstream infections due to extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2017 Mar 1;72(3):906-913.1460-2091https://hdl.handle.net/2183/48059[Abstract] Background: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are frequent yet outcome prediction rules for clinical use have not been developed. The objective was to define and validate a predictive risk score for 30 day mortality. Methods: A multinational retrospective cohort study including consecutive episodes of BSI due to ESBL-E was performed; cases were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort (DC) or a validation cohort (VC). The main outcome variable was all-cause 30 day mortality. A predictive score was developed using logistic regression coefficients for the DC, then tested in the VC. Results: The DC and VC included 622 and 328 episodes, respectively. The final multivariate logistic regression model for mortality in the DC included age >50 years (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.18-5.85; 3 points), infection due to Klebsiella spp. (OR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.21-3.58; 2 points), source other than urinary tract (OR = 3.6; 95% CI: 2.02-6.44; 3 points), fatal underlying disease (OR = 3.91; 95% CI: 2.24-6.80; 4 points), Pitt score >3 (OR = 3.04; 95 CI: 1.69-5.47; 3 points), severe sepsis or septic shock at presentation (OR = 4.8; 95% CI: 2.72-8.46; 4 points) and inappropriate early targeted therapy (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.58-4.63; 2 points). The score showed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.85 in the DC and 0.82 in the VC. Mortality rates for patients with scores of < 11 and ≥11 were 5.6% and 45.9%, respectively, in the DC, and 5.4% and 34.8% in the VC. Conclusions: We developed and validated an easy-to-collect predictive scoring model for all-cause 30 day mortality useful for identifying patients at high and low risk of mortality.engThis is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy following peer review. The version of record is available online at Oxford Academic web page.BacteremiaEnterobacteriaceaeEnterobacteriaceae Infectionsbeta-Lactamasesjournal articleopen access10.1093/JAC/DKW513