Bruna, Fernando2024-12-202024Bruna, F. (2024). Market potential, spatial theories and spatial trends. Spatial Economic Analysis, 19(4), 527–548. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2024.23255171742-1780http://hdl.handle.net/2183/40574This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Spatial Economic Analysis on 27 Mar 2024, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2024.2325517[Abstract] Previous literature on European regions has shown that structural estimation of New Economic Geography (NEG) wage-type equations obtains results similar to those obtained using old regional economics techniques. I show that this similarity is due to the presence of global spatial trends in the variables (first-order non-stationarity), which produce spuri-ous regressions. Formal tests and graphical models confirm that any variable displaying a core-periphery spatial pattern produces similar predictions for European regional per cap-ita income. Empirical tests of spatial theories should thus pay attention to the geographical features of the administrative units and the global spatial trends of the variables analyzed.engAtribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/NEGCore-peripherySpurious regressionObservational equivalencejournal articleopen accesshttps://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2024.2325517