Iglesias-Soler, EliseoClavel, I.García Villar, JaumeMayo, XiánGarcía Unanue, Jorge FernandoFelipe, José LuisGallardo Guerrero, Leonor2025-08-212025-08-212025-06-04Clavel I, García J, Mayo X, García-Unanue J, Iglesias-Soler E, Felipe JL, Gallardo L. Prediction of Dropout in Physical Activity: The Effect of Time. J Phys Act Health. 2025 Jun 4:1-9. doi: 10.1123/jpah.2024-0777. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 40467051.1543-5474https://hdl.handle.net/2183/45607Accepted author manuscript version reprinted, by permission, from Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1123/jpah.2024-0777 . © Human Kinetics, Inc.[Abstract]: Background: Leisure-time physical activity is the preferred domain by the population to follow physical activity recommendations, helping to maintain a healthy lifestyle. However, the main issue in this type of physical activity intervention is massive dropout. Methods: Using monthly data from 20,908 leisure/fitness center members (2011–2016), we estimate a discrete-time duration model to examine how membership duration influences dropout probability, addressing cross-sectional limitations. Additionally, we assess the explanatory power of different covariate groups. Results: Dropout probability follows a seasonal pattern, peaking within the first 3 months before declining and stabilizing over time. Short-term memberships and low attendance frequency significantly increase dropout risk, confirming that membership conditions and time-related variables are key predictors of retention. Additionally, macroeconomic factors particularly unemployment play a crucial role in increasing dropout probability. Conclusions: These results could help both recreational facility managers and policymakers to design strategies to reduce dropout among physical activity practitioners, in particular, in the current situation generated by the COVID-19 crisis.engAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternationalAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Health behaviorRecreationWellnessAbandonmentWithdrawaljournal articleopen accesshttps://doi.org/10.1123/jpah.2024-0777