Economic valuation under uncertainty in offshore wind farms investments: A systematic literature review

Abstract

[Abstract] Offshore wind energy is emerging as a cornerstone of the global energy transition, yet its economic valuation remains methodologically fragmented and challenged by deep uncertainty, high capital intensity, and location-specific risks. This article provides a comprehensive and structured synthesis of the economic methodologies applied to offshore wind project appraisal, with particular emphasis on approaches that incorporate flexibility, a critical but underdeveloped dimension in existing research. Using a systematic literature review of 61 peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2025, the study maps the evolution of valuation practices, identifies the dominant analytical tools, and assesses their capacity to address the uncertainty inherent in offshore wind investment decisions. Among the methodologies surveyed, real options analysis stands out as the most versatile framework for capturing investment flexibility across the project life cycle, whereas complementary approaches such as life-cycle costing, project finance, and multi-criteria decision analysis offer partial but important and complementary perspectives. The study also identifies significant blind spots in the literature, notably the insufficient treatment of macroeconomic risks (interest rates, inflation, electricity-market instability), regulatory uncertainty, and the valuation challenges associated with emerging floating offshore wind technologies. The findings provide a foundation for developing more comprehensive and flexible valuation frameworks and offer practical insights for policymakers, regulators, and developers seeking to design robust investment environments for offshore wind expansion.