A New Methodology for Medium-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Wave, Oceanographic and Meteorological Predictor Variables

Abstract

[Abstract] Onshore and offshore wind energy are two of the best options from an environmental point of view. Nevertheless, the volatile and intermittent nature of the wind resource hampers its integration into the power system. Accurate wind speed forecasting facilitates the operation of the electric grid, guaranteeing its stability and safety. However, most existing studies focus on very-short- and short-term time horizons, typically ranging from a few minutes to six hours, and rely exclusively on data measured at the prediction site. In contrast, only a few works address medium-term horizons or incorporate offshore data. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to predict medium-term (24 h ahead) onshore wind speed using the most influential offshore predictors, which are water surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wave direction, and spectral significant height. A new methodology based on twenty-seven machine learning regression models was developed and compared using the root mean squared error (RMSE) as the main evaluation metric. Unlike most existing studies that focus on very-short- or short-term horizons (typically below 6 h), this work addresses the medium-term (24 h ahead) forecast. After hyperparameter tuning, the CatBoost regressor achieved the best performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.06 m/s and a mean absolute error of 1.62 m/s—an improvement of around 40% compared to the simplest regression models. This approach opens new possibilities for wind speed estimation in regions where in situ measurements are not available. This will potentially reduce the cost, time, and environmental impacts derived from onshore wind resource characterisation campaigns. It also serves as a basis for future applications using combined offshore data from several locations.