Normalized sensitivities and parameter identifiability of in situ diffusion experiments on Callovo–Oxfordian clay at Bure site

Abstract

Diffusion of inert and reactive tracers (DIR) is an experimental program performed by ANDRA at Bure underground research laboratory in Meuse/Haute Marne (France) to characterize diffusion and retention of radionuclides in Callovo–Oxfordian (C–Ox) argillite. In situ diffusion experiments were performed in vertical boreholes to determine diffusion and retention parameters of selected radionuclides. C–Ox clay exhibits a mild diffusion anisotropy due to stratification. Interpretation of in situ diffusion experiments is complicated by several non-ideal effects caused by the presence of a sintered filter, a gap between the filter and borehole wall and an excavation disturbed zone (EdZ). The relevance of such non-ideal effects and their impact on estimated clay parameters have been evaluated with numerical sensitivity analyses and synthetic experiments having similar parameters and geometric characteristics as real DIR experiments. Normalized dimensionless sensitivities of tracer concentrations at the test interval have been computed numerically. Tracer concentrations are found to be sensitive to all key parameters. Sensitivities are tracer dependent and vary with time. These sensitivities are useful to identify which are the parameters that can be estimated with less uncertainty and find the times at which tracer concentrations begin to be sensitive to each parameter. Synthetic experiments generated with prescribed known parameters have been interpreted automatically with INVERSE-CORE2D and used to evaluate the relevance of non-ideal effects and ascertain parameter identifiability in the presence of random measurement errors. Identifiability analysis of synthetic experiments reveals that data noise makes difficult the estimation of clay parameters. Parameters of clay and EdZ cannot be estimated simultaneously from noisy data. Models without an EdZ fail to reproduce synthetic data. Proper interpretation of in situ diffusion experiments requires accounting for filter, gap and EdZ. Estimates of the effective diffusion coefficient and the porosity of clay are highly correlated, indicating that these parameters cannot be estimated simultaneously. Accurate estimation of De and porosities of clay and EdZ is only possible when the standard deviation of random noise is less than 0.01. Small errors in the volume of the circulation system do not affect clay parameter estimates. Normalized sensitivities as well as the identifiability analysis of synthetic experiments provide additional insight on inverse estimation of in situ diffusion experiments and will be of great benefit for the interpretation of real DIR in situ diffusion experiments.