Multi-criteria risk assessment: Case study of a large hydroelectric project

Abstract

[Abstarct]: Run-of-river hydroelectric plants along Amazon River tributaries have been shown to be an ecologically viable alternative to meet Brazilian energy demand. These plants are a solution to add capacity. However, due to geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of this region, there are risks that cannot be disregarded. This study reports the application of multi-criteria analysis to identify risk events for the Santo Antonio Hydroelectric Plant under construction, related to service packs relevant to the project. The choice of the appropriate technique took into consideration the imprecision of subjective judgment. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) enabled inserting a measure of inaccuracy, represented by the degree of fuzziness, assigned to each pairwise comparison. Fuzziness was incorporated into the process by means of a triangular membership function. The convergence of opinion was assessed by comparing the hierarchical order of the perceived risks identified by two distinct groups, the owner consortium, and the builder consortium. These groups have similar risk perceptions, despite having different roles and asymmetric risk sharing caused mainly by the characteristics and provisions contained in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract. The model was efficient in ranking the risk events from the perspective of the two groups, therefore constituting a rational and transparent approach for risk management in large projects.