Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models

Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

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http://hdl.handle.net/2183/16698

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models

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Lombardía_Cortiña_María_José_2015_Prediction_of_forest_fires_occurrences_with_area-level_Poisson_mixed_models.pdf (1.94 MB)

Identifiers

URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2183/16698

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.009

Publication date

2015-05-01

Authors

Boubeta, Miguel

Lombardía, María José

Marey Pérez, Manuel Francisco

Morales, Domingo

Bibliographic citation

M.Boubeta, M.J. Lombardía, M. Marey-Pérez and D. Morales. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models. Journal of Environmental Management , 154 (2015) , 151-158.

Abstract

[Abstract] The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia.