Application of Machine Learning in the Identification and Prediction of Maritime Accident Factors

Abstract

[Abstract] Artificial intelligence seems to be a new point of view to classical problems that, in the past, could not be understood in depth, leaving certain gaps in each knowledge area. As an example of this, maritime accidents are one of the most recognised international problems, with clear environmental and human life consequences. From the beginning, statistical studies have shown that not only the typical sampled variables must be considered but the accidents are related to human factors that, at the same time, are related to some variables like fatigue that cannot be easily sampled. In this research work, the use of machine learning algorithms on over 300 maritime accidents is proposed to identify the relationship between human factors and the main variables. The results showed that compliance with the minimum crew members and ship length are the two most relevant variables related to each accident for the Spanish Search and Rescue (SAR) region, as well as the characteristics of the ships. These accidents could be understood as three main groups of accidents related to the general tendency to not meet the minimum number of crew members and its difference in the year of construction of the ship. Finally, it was possible to use neural networks to model accidents with sufficient accuracy (determination factor higher than 0.60), which is particularly interesting in the context of a control system for maritime transport.