Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study
![Thumbnail](/dspace/bitstream/handle/2183/32252/Pajaro_2022_Stochastic_SIR_model_predicts_COVID_19_public_health_wastewater.pdf.jpg?sequence=5&isAllowed=y)
Use este enlace para citar
http://hdl.handle.net/2183/32252
Excepto si se señala otra cosa, la licencia del ítem se describe como Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
Colecciones
- GI-M2NICA - Artigos [57]
Metadatos
Mostrar el registro completo del ítemTítulo
Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year studyFecha
2022-11Cita bibliográfica
PÁJARO, Manuel, et al. Stochastic SIR model predicts the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics from public health and wastewater data in small and medium-sized municipalities: A one year study. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022, vol. 164, p. 112671.
Resumen
[Abstract]: The level of unpredictability of the COVID-19 pandemics poses a challenge to effectively model its dynamic evolution. In this study we incorporate the inherent stochasticity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread by reinterpreting the classical compartmental models of infectious diseases (SIR type) as chemical reaction systems modeled via the Chemical Master Equation and solved by Monte Carlo Methods. Our model predicts the evolution of the pandemics at the level of municipalities, incorporating for the first time (i) a variable infection rate to capture the effect of mitigation policies on the dynamic evolution of the pandemics (ii) SIR-with-jumps taking into account the possibility of multiple infections from a single infected person and (iii) data of viral load quantified by RT-qPCR from samples taken from Wastewater Treatment Plants. The model has been successfully employed for the prediction of the COVID-19 pandemics evolution in small and medium size municipalities of Galicia (Northwest of Spain).
Palabras clave
SIR model
COVID-19
SARS-coV-2
Stochastic mechanistic model
Chemical master equation
Stochastic simulation algorithm
COVID-19
SARS-coV-2
Stochastic mechanistic model
Chemical master equation
Stochastic simulation algorithm
Versión del editor
Derechos
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/).
ISSN
0960-0779